《经济学人》社论

“为什么必须选拜登”
Why it has to be Biden

唐纳德•特朗普亵渎了使美国成为世界灯塔的价值观。

Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world.

2016年选举特朗普成总统的美国是一个不快乐和分裂的国度。他此时要求选他连任总统的是一个更不快乐和更分裂的国度。在他领导下的近四年里，这个国度的政治生活比以前更加充满愤怒，党争更加变本加厉。国民的日常生活被纷争、推诿和谎言拖累，其间还有一个已经23万人死亡的流行病。导致这种情况的大部分原因是是特朗普先生的作为。11月3日的选举，他的连任成功将是对这一切的正面肯定。

THE COUNTRY that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and more divided. After almost four years of his leadership, politics is even angrier than it was and partisanship even less constrained. Daily life is consumed by a pandemic that has registered almost 230,000 deaths amid bickering, buck-passing and lies. Much of that is Mr Trump’s doing, and his victory on November 3rd would endorse it all.

乔•拜登不是治疗美国这个病夫的灵丹妙药。但他是一个好人，他将恢复总统府白宫的稳定和文明礼仪。他有能力着手一个漫长而艰巨的任务，重新整合这个支离破碎的国家。这就是为什么我们会投票给乔•拜登，如果我们有投票权的话。

Joe Biden is not a miracle cure for what ails America. But he is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the White House. He is equipped to begin the long, difficult task of putting a fractured country back together again. That is why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe.

国王唐纳德•特朗普

特朗普先生的短板，从作为国家元首的角度，比他作为政府首脑的角度更为突出。他和他领导的这届政府如同之前的各届政府，可以说有这样那样的治理成功和治理失败。但作为美国价值观的守护者、作为国家民族的良心、以及作为美国在世界的代言人，特朗普惨烈地未能胜任这项任务。

Mr. Trump has fallen short less in his role as the head of America’s government than as the head of state. He and his administration can claim their share of political wins and losses, just like administrations before them. But as the guardian of America’s values, the conscience of the nation and America’s voice in the world, he has dismally failed to measure up to the task.

如果没有新冠肺炎，特朗普先生的政策很可能为他赢得第二个任期（见审计特朗普简报第一篇）。他在国内的业绩包括减税、放松政府对行业的管制和任命大量保守派法官。在新冠瘟疫之前，最贫穷的四分之一工人的工资每年增长4.7%。小企业的信心接近30年来的峰值。通过限制移民，他让投他票的选民得到他们想要的东西（即反对移民）。在国外，他不循规蹈矩的行动带来了一些可喜的变化（见第二篇简报）。美国打击了伊斯兰国，并在以色列和三个穆斯林国家之间促成了和平协议。让北约的一些盟友终于在防务上增加了开支。他还让中国政府知道，白宫现在确认中国是美国的一个强大对手。

Without covid-19, Mr Trump’s policies could well have won him a second term (see first Briefing). His record at home includes tax cuts, deregulation and the appointment of benchloads of conservative judges. Before the pandemic, wages among the poorest quarter of workers were growing by 4.7% a year. Small-business confidence was near a 30-year peak. By restricting immigration, he gave his voters what they wanted. Abroad, his disruptive approach has brought some welcome change (see second Briefing). America has hammered Islamic State and brokered peace deals between Israel and a trio of Muslim countries. Some allies in NATO are at last spending more on defence. China’s government knows that the White House now recognises it as a formidable adversary.

这个业绩清单也有很多值得反对的成分：减税是累退的（即高收入的人群比低收入的人群享受到更多减税的好处）；一些放松政府管制的措施是有害的，尤其是对环境有害；医疗改革的尝试是一场失败；移民官员残忍地将移民儿童与他们的父母分开（译者注：特朗普政权的司法部强行将非法移民的小孩跟他们的父母分隔，导致数以百计的儿童失去跟父母的联系）；而限制新人入境则将损害美国的活力。在朝鲜、伊朗、以及为中东带来和平这些艰难问题上，特朗普先生的表现并不比他喜欢嘲笑的华盛顿体制官员做得更好。

This tally contains plenty to object to. The tax cuts were regressive. Some of the deregulation was harmful, especially to the environment. The attempt at health-care reform has been a debacle. Immigration officials cruelly separated migrant children from their parents and limits on new entrants will drain America’s vitality. On the hard problems—on North Korea and Iran, and on bringing peace to the Middle East—Mr Trump has fared no better than the Washington establishment he loves to ridicule.

但是，我们与特朗普先生更大的分歧是在一些更根本的问题上。在过去的四年里，他一再亵渎使美国成为本国人民的避风港和世界灯塔的价值观、原则和实践。指控拜登先生跟特朗普先生同样或更糟糕的人们应该停下来思考一下。那些轻描淡写地把特朗普先生的霸凌和谎言批评为不过是发推文话多而已的人们，则是忽略了他所造成的伤害。

However, our bigger dispute with Mr Trump is over something more fundamental. In the past four years he has repeatedly desecrated the values, principles and practices that made America a haven for its own people and a beacon to the world. Those who accuse Mr Biden of the same or worse should stop and think. Those who breezily dismiss Mr Trump’s bullying and lies as so much tweeting are ignoring the harm he has wrought.

先从美国的民主文化说起。部落政治在特朗普先生当政之前就存在。特朗普是 "飞黄腾达" （即特朗普主持的 The Apprentice节目）主持人，他利用电视节目的影响，从演员休息室跃进到白宫。然而，尽管近代大多数总统都认为毒性党争对美国不利，特朗普先生却把毒性党争作为他的执政核心。他从未试图代表没投票给他的大多数美国人（译者注：2016年投票给特朗普的是美国选民的少数，而不是多数;通常当选总统都会致力于在执政中代表全体美国人民，而不是只代表哪些投自己票的选民）。面对黑人乔治•弗洛伊德被杀后涌现的和平抗议活动，他的本能不是愈合各方，而是将其描述为抢劫和左翼暴力的狂欢 —— 这是他煽动种族紧张局势的模式的一部分。导致当今有40%的选民互相认定对方不仅是被误导，而且是邪恶的。

It starts with America’s democratic culture. Tribal politics predated Mr Trump. The host of “The Apprentice” exploited it to take himself from the green room to the White House. Yet, whereas most recent presidents have seen toxic partisanship as bad for America, Mr Trump made it central to his office. He has never sought to represent the majority of Americans who did not vote for him. Faced by an outpouring of peaceful protest after the killing of George Floyd, his instinct was not to heal, but to depict it as an orgy of looting and left-wing violence—part of a pattern of stoking racial tension. Today, 40% of the electorate believes the other side is not just misguided, but evil.

特朗普总统任期内最令人头疼的特点是他对真相的憎恶和蔑视。所有的政客都有过搪塞敷衍事实，但特朗普政府却给了美国 "另类事实"。特朗普先生所说的一切都不能相信，包括他声称的拜登先生腐败。他在共和党内的拉拉队觉得有义务不顾一切地为他辩护，就像他们在弹劾特朗普案中所做的那样，除了一票之外，议员们在弹劾案完全按照党派从属关系来投票。

The most head-spinning feature of the Trump presidency is his contempt for the truth. All politicians prevaricate, but his administration has given America “alternative facts”. Nothing Mr Trump says can be believed—including his claims that Mr Biden is corrupt. His cheerleaders in the Republican Party feel obliged to defend him regardless, as they did in an impeachment that, bar one vote, went along party lines.

党争和谎言破坏了美国民主的规范和机构。这可能听显得很挑剔 —— 特朗普的选民毕竟喜欢他愿意得罪人的特点。但美国的制衡制度因此遭到破坏。这位总统要求把政治对手关押起来；他利用司法部报复政敌；他给被判犯有严重罪行的支持者减刑；他给他的家人安排白宫的肥缺职位；他向外国政府提供保护，以换取外国政府帮忙弄政治对手的污点材料。特朗普總統还为了保障自己赢得选举连任，而對美国選舉制度的健全性提出質疑，这是破壞了他就职宣誓要捍衛的民主制度（这里指的是特朗普今年大肆攻击美国民主选举体制充满投票作弊，为他可能落选时不接受选举结果进行铺垫）。

Partisanship and lying undermine norms and institutions. That may sound fussy—Trump voters, after all, like his willingness to offend. But America’s system of checks and balances suffers. This president calls for his opponents to be locked up; he uses the Department of Justice to conduct vendettas; he commutes the sentences of supporters convicted of serious crimes; he gives his family plum jobs in the White House; and he offers foreign governments protection in exchange for dirt on a rival. When a president casts doubt on the integrity of an election just because it might help him win, he undermines the democracy he has sworn to defend.

党争和谎言也会破坏政策制订。看看新冠肺炎的应对情况吧。特朗普先生本来有机会团结他的国家，围绕一个有组织的应对措施 —— 并像其他领导人一样，在此基础上赢得连任。但他却把民主党的州长们视为竞争对手或替罪羊。他压制和贬抑美国疾病控制和预防中心这样的世界级医疗卫生机构。他经常对科学嗤之以鼻，包括对戴口罩这种问题。而且，他的眼光不能看得比自己赢得连任更远，因而持续歪曲有关疫情及其后果的明显的事实真相。美国有许多世界上最好的科学家，但它落得有世界上最高的一个新冠肺炎死亡率。

Partisanship and lying also undermine policy. Look at covid-19. Mr Trump had a chance to unite his country around a well organised response—and win re-election on the back of it, as other leaders have. Instead he saw Democratic governors as rivals or scapegoats. He muzzled and belittled America’s world-class institutions, such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. As so often, he sneered at science, including over masks. And, unable to see beyond his own re-election, he has continued to misrepresent the evident truth about the epidemic and its consequences. America has many of the world’s best scientists. It also has one of world’s highest covid-19 fatality rates.

特朗普先生对待美国的盟国也是同样的小肚鸡肠。盟国本来会放大美国在世界的影响力。其中最亲密的盟国关系是在战时结成的，这种关系一旦脱落，在和平时期就不容易重新形成。这些与美国曾经并肩作战的国家考量特朗普展示的领导品质，他们发现很难辨认出来美国这个他们曾仰慕的地方。

Mr Trump has treated America’s allies with the same small-mindedness. Alliances magnify America’s influence in the world. The closest ones were forged during wars and, once unmade, cannot easily be put back together in peacetime. When countries that have fought alongside America look on his leadership, they struggle to recognise the place they admire.

这一点很重要。美国人既可能高估也可能低估他们在世界上的影响力。单靠美国的军事力量是无法变革外国的，阿富汗和伊拉克的长期战争证明了这一点。然而，美国的理想确实是其他民主国家的榜样，也是生活在迫害其公民的国家的人们的榜样。特朗普先生认为理想是用来忽悠傻蛋的。中国和俄罗斯的政府一直把美国关于自由的高谈阔论，看成是对强权就是权利这一信念的玩世不恭的掩饰。可悲的是，在特朗普先生的领导下，他们的这个怀疑得到了证实。（编者注：这段话的意思是说特朗普的作为证明中国和俄国对美国的想法是对的。）

That matters. Americans are liable both to over- and to underestimate the influence they have in the world. American military power alone cannot transform foreign countries, as the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq proved. Yet American ideals really do serve as an example to other democracies, and to people who live in states that persecute their citizens. Mr Trump thinks ideals are for suckers. The governments of China and Russia have always seen American rhetoric about freedom as cynical cover for the belief that might is right. Tragically, under Mr Trump their suspicions have been confirmed.

像特朗普先生这样一个历史性地糟糕的总统再执政四年，将会加深所有这些危害 —— 甚至加害更多。2016年，美国选民不知道他们得到的是什么样一个总统。现在他们知道了。选民继续投票给特朗普，等于投票支持分裂和谎言；等于赞同践踏民主规范，将国家机构缩减为个人领地；等于拥抱不仅威胁到遥远的土地，而且威胁到佛罗里达、加利福尼亚和美国的中部地带的气候变化；等于发出信号，表明美国这个倡导天下自由和民主的国度，其实只是另外一个横行霸道的大国而已。特朗普先生的连任将给他所制造的所有伤害打上民主的标签。

Four more years of a historically bad president like Mr Trump would deepen all these harms—and more. In 2016 American voters did not know whom they were getting. Now they do. They would be voting for division and lying. They would be endorsing the trampling of norms and the shrinking of national institutions into personal fiefs. They would be ushering in climate change that threatens not only distant lands but Florida, California and America’s heartlands. They would be signalling that the champion of freedom and democracy for all should be just another big country throwing its weight around. Re-election would put a democratic seal on all the harm Mr Trump has done.

乔•拜登总统

因此相比较之下，拜登先生作为一个对特朗普先生的改进，栏杆并不高。他很容易就可以达标。民主党左翼在初选中不喜欢拜登先生身上的很多东西 —— 比如他是一个中间派，他是一个讲究体制的人，他是一个共识建设者 —— 使他成为特朗普的鲜明反面，非常适合修复过去四年的一些损害。拜登先生将不会能够终结美国人民彼此之间几十年来不断加剧的痛苦敌意。但他可以开始铺设一条走向和解的道路。

The bar to Mr Biden being an improvement is therefore not high. He clears it easily. Much of what the left wing of the Democratic Party disliked about him in the primaries—that he is a centrist, an institutionalist, a consensus-builder—makes him an anti-Trump well-suited to repair some of the damage of the past four years. Mr Biden will not be able to end the bitter animosity that has been mounting for decades in America. But he could begin to lay down a path towards reconciliation.

虽然拜登的政策与前几届政府比较会偏左，但他并不是革命家。他承诺的 "更好地重建" 将花费2万亿-3万亿美元，是提高年支出GDP的约3%的一部分。他对企业和富人的加税将是显著的，但不是惩罚性的。他将寻求重建美国破败的基础设施，给予卫生和教育更多的支持，并允许更多的移民。他的气候变化政策将投资于研究和促进就业的技术。他是一位称职的行政管理者，也是程序的信徒（译者注：指的是拜登会遵循和尊重良好的工作流程）。他听从专家的建议，即使听取专家意见有时候会带来不便。他是一个多边主义者：即他比特朗普先生少对抗性，但更有目的性。

Although his policies are to the left of previous administrations’, he is no revolutionary. His pledge to “build back better” would be worth $2trn-3trn, part of a boost to annual spending of about 3% of GDP. His tax rises on firms and the wealthy would be significant, but not punitive. He would seek to rebuild America’s decrepit infrastructure, give more to health and education and allow more immigration. His climate-change policy would invest in research and job-boosting technology. He is a competent administrator and a believer in process. He listens to expert advice, even when it is inconvenient. He is a multilateralist: less confrontational than Mr Trump, but more purposeful.

摇摆不定的共和党人担心，拜登先生年老体弱，会成为强硬左派的特洛伊木马（译者注：即担心拜登会让强硬左派胜出）。他的党内激进派确实在骚动，但他和他的副总统人选卡马拉-哈里斯（Kamala Harris）都在竞选中表明，他们可以控制住激进派的骚动。通常情况下，选民可能考虑通过确保参议院仍在共和党手中来制约左派。但这次不会。民主党在参议院的大胜将引入蒙大拿州的史蒂夫-布洛克（Steve Bullock）或堪萨斯州的芭芭拉-博利尔（Barbara Bollier）等参议员，增加国会中温和的中间派对激进派的优势。你不会看到他们中的任何一个人向左倾斜。

Wavering Republicans worry that Mr Biden, old and weak, would be a Trojan horse for the hard left. It is true that his party’s radical wing is stirring, but he and Kamala Harris, his vice-presidential pick, have both shown in the campaign that they can keep it in check. Ordinarily, voters might be advised to constrain the left by ensuring that the Senate remained in Republican hands. Not this time. A big win for the Democrats there would add to the preponderance of moderate centrists over radicals in Congress by bringing in senators like Steve Bullock in Montana or Barbara Bollier in Kansas. You would not see a lurch to the left from either of them.

民主党大获全胜对共和党也有利。这是因为共和党跟民主党势均力敌的竞争态势，会诱使共和党采纳分裂性和种族两极化的策略。在一个日益多元化的国家，这种情况将是一条死胡同。正如反特朗普的共和党人所认为的那样，特朗普主义在道德上已经破产（见列克星敦报告）。共和党需要复兴；必须明确地摒弃特朗普先生。

A resounding Democratic victory would also benefit the Republicans. That is because a close contest would tempt them into divisive, racially polarising tactics, a dead end in a country that is growing more diverse. As anti-Trump Republicans argue, Trumpism is morally bankrupt (see Lexington). Their party needs a renaissance. Mr Trump must be soundly rejected.

在这次选举，美国面临着一个命运攸关性的选择。事关美国民主的性质：一条道路通向一个分裂的、个人化的统治，由一个蔑视贬抑正派体面和事实真相的国家元首主导；另一条道路则通往一种更好的前景，一种本报认为更忠实于最初使美国得以鼓舞激励全世界人心的价值观的前景。

In this election America faces a fateful choice. At stake is the nature of its democracy. One path leads to a fractious, personalised rule, dominated by a head of state who scorns decency and truth. The other leads to something better—something truer to what this newspaper sees as the values that originally made America an inspiration around the world.

在他的第一个任期内，特朗普先生一直是一个破坏性的总统。他的连任将让他觉得他那些最糟的本能得到了正面确认。拜登先生则是他的截然对立面。拜登先生当选并不能保障他会执政成功 —— 不可能有这种保障的。但他踏入白宫总统府时，将带着民主国家所能赐予的最珍贵礼物：革新的希望。

In his first term, Mr Trump has been a destructive president. He would start his second affirmed in all his worst instincts. Mr Biden is his antithesis. Were he to be elected, success would not be guaranteed—how could it be? But he would enter the White House with the promise of the most precious gift that democracies can bestow: renewal.