Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at MIT, is co-author (with James A. Robinson) of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty and The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty.
作者是麻省理工学院经济学教授达伦·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）。他和詹姆斯·鲁滨逊（James A. Robinson）是《为什么国家失败：权力，繁荣与贫困的根源》和《狭窄的走廊：国家、社会与自由的命运》 的共同作者。
Given US President Donald Trump's propensity for racist, divisive rhetoric, it is easy to see why so many of his opponents would describe him as a modern-day Benito Mussolini or Adolf Hitler. But by implying that all Trump supporters are irredeemable extremists, such rhetoric merely plays into his hands.
鉴于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）醉心于种族主义和分裂国民的言论，很容易看出为什么这么多反对者说他是现代的贝尼托·墨索里尼（Benito Mussolini）或希特勒（Adolf Hitler）。但是说特朗普是法西斯，进而隐喻所有特朗普支持者都是不可救药的极端主义者的说法，却正中特朗普下怀。
White nationalism is on the rise in the United States. According to the Anti-Defamation League, there were 6,768 incidents of extremism and anti-Semitism (mostly from the right) in the US in 2018 and 2019. That figure is significantly higher than in previous years, leading many to conclude that President Donald Trump is to blame for the uptick in domestic extremism.
白人民族主义在美国正在兴起。根据反诽谤联盟的统计，2018年和2019年，美国发生了6,768起极端主义和反犹太主义事件（大部分来自右翼）。这一数字大大高于往年，使许多人得出结论认为，美国国内极端主义的上升应该归咎于唐纳德·特朗普总统。
Since the launch of his presidential campaign in 2015, Trump has overtly and covertly encouraged violence by his supporters. After a white supremacist, James Alex Fields Jr., drove his car into counter-protesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, killing one and injuring dozens, Trump infamously said that there were “some very fine people on both sides.” And he has not shied away from racist rhetoric when describing African countries and even non-white members of Congress.
自2015年特朗普的总统竞选活动启动以来，他曾公开地和私下地怂恿他的支持者的暴力行为。当白人至上主义者詹姆斯·亚历克斯·菲尔兹（James Alex Fields Jr.）在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔市开车冲向抗议法西斯活动的民众，撞死1人和撞伤数十人后，特朗普臭名昭著地谈论：“双方都是些非常好的人。”在描述非洲国家和提到国会的非白人议员时，特朗普也不回避他的种族主义言论。
Trump’s words have consequences. In addition to the Charlottesville killer, several other high-profile white nationalists who have carried out acts of violence or domestic terrorism have said that they were inspired by the president. These include Cesar Sayoc Jr., who mailed pipe bombs to prominent Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and Trump’s 2016 opponent, Hillary Clinton; Robert Bowers, who killed 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue; and Patrick Crusius, who gunned down 22 people in El Paso. New research by economists Karsten Müller of Princeton University and Carlo Schwarz of Warwick University draws a direct causal link between Trump’s anti-Muslim tweets and anti-Muslim hate crimes.
特朗普的言论有社会效应。除了上述夏洛茨维尔市的凶手，其他几位进行过暴力或国内恐怖主义行径的白人民族主义者也表示，他们的行动是受到总统的启迪。其中包括小塞萨尔·萨约克（Cesar Sayoc Jr.），他向著名的民主党人（包括前总统巴拉克·奥巴马和特朗普2016年的竞争对手希拉里·克林顿）邮寄了炸弹；罗伯特·鲍尔斯（Robert Bowers）在匹兹堡的一座犹太教堂中杀死11人；帕特里克·克鲁斯乌斯（Patrick Crusius）在埃尔帕索（El Paso ）市枪杀了22人。普林斯顿大学的经济学家Karsten Müller和沃威克大学的卡洛·施瓦茨做了一个新研究，发现特朗普的反穆斯林推文和反穆斯林仇恨犯罪，有直接因果关系。
Owing to Trump’s propensity to foment violence and distort the truth, many have concluded that he is a fascist. Most ominously, Trump seeks to delegitimize democratic institutions and impartial bureaucratic procedures, not only to insulate his and his family’s dubious business dealings, but as a strategy to increase his personal power and authority. Italian fascists and the Nazis routinely used similar strategies from the 1920s onward.
由于特朗普喜爱煽动暴力和歪曲事实，许多人认定他是法西斯主义者。最为不祥的是，特朗普努力毁损美国人民对美国民主制度下的机构（即新闻、行政、立法、司法等机构，译者注）和公正政府工作规程（即美国政府机构不惠顾、不惧怕特别政商利益的做法，译者注）的信任。特朗普这么做，不仅仅是为了庇护他自己和家人的可疑生意，而且作为谋取巩固个人权力和权威的策略。从1920年代起，意大利法西斯主义者和纳粹分子就惯常采用类似的策略。
But it would be a mistake to exaggerate these similarities. For starters, interwar fascism cannot be understood without the foil of communism, which many middle-class Germans and Italians considered an existential threat. There is no such threat today. Obama’s election as America’s first black president did reinforce extremists’ fears that America’s white population is being “replaced.” But such conspiracy theories cannot be compared to the real-world threat posed by communism following Russia’s Bolshevik revolution in 1917.
但是夸大特朗普和法西斯的这些相似之处是错误的。首先，如果没有共产主义的衬托，就无法理解两次世界大战之间年头里产生的法西斯主义，当时许多中产阶级的德国人和意大利人认为共产主义是他们的一个生死存亡的威胁。今天则没有这种威胁。奥巴马当选美国第一位黑人总统确实加剧了极端主义者对美国白人人口被“取代 ”的担忧。但是，这种阴谋论不能与1917年俄国布尔什维克革命后共产主义的现实威胁相提并论。
Second, in the post-World War I era, traumatized, disillusioned, and battle-hardened young men comprised a significant share of many countries’ population. While many veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have suffered similar traumas (and some are staunch Trump supporters), they command neither the numbers nor the political influence that their interwar counterparts did.
其次，在第一次世界大战后的年代，受创伤、幻灭、和经战争历练出刚硬品性的年轻人在许多国家的人口中占很大比例。而当今，尽管伊拉克和阿富汗的许多退伍军人也遭受了类似的创伤（他们有些是特朗普的坚定支持者），但他们既没有两次世界大战中间年头里的同类人的数量，也没有他们的同样的政治影响力。
Third, despite his rhetoric and attempts to enlist the help of other countries in his re-election campaign, Trump has not yet tried to consolidate his power by non-electoral means. That could change if he loses to the Democratic challenger in November. But even then, it would be a far cry from past fascists’ systematic undermining of democratic processes.
第三，尽管有特朗普的言辞，以及他试图在连任竞选中运用外国的帮助，特朗普仍未尝试通过非选举手段巩固其权力。如果他在11月输给民主党挑战者，他不诉诸非选举手段的情况则可能会有改变。但是即使到时候他这么做了，其效果会跟过去的法西斯主义者对民主规程的系统破坏也相去甚远。
Lastly, while the Republican Party’s unconditional support for Trump is eerily similar to the behavior of center-right politicians who backed Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler, there is nothing uniquely fascist about unprincipled politicians behaving dishonorably.
最后，虽然共和党对特朗普的无条件支持与支持贝尼托·墨索里尼和阿道夫·希特勒的中右翼政治家的举止奇特地相似，但这种无原则的政客们的不光彩行为并不是法西斯主义者才独有的品质。
This is important, because it really does matter whether one calls Trump a fascist, as opposed to applying some other label. To be sure, a second Trump term would represent an existential crisis for American institutions. The forces that have hampered his agenda – most critically, mobilized citizens – would become less powerful as his rule became further normalized. Political conventions would be even more radically undermined than in Trump’s first term. The administration’s ongoing effort to abolish impartial expertise from the bureaucracy would continue unabated. The political system, including the judiciary, could become irreparably polarized.
把特朗普称为法西斯主义者还是用其它的什么标识来称呼他，确实很重要。可以肯定的是，特朗普的第二个任期会是美国政治机构（指美国的行政、司法、立法、新闻等民主制度的基石，译者注）的一个生死存亡的危机时刻。随着特朗普的统治的逐渐常规化，阻碍他事务议程的力量（其中最关键的是动员起来的公民的力量）将减弱。美国的政治规则将受到比特朗普的第一任期时更大的破坏。特朗普当局一直在政府机关中摒弃具备公正、有专业素养的官员的努力将不受阻拦的继续下去。包括司法在内的美国政治体系可能会变得无法修补的两极分化。
But partisan polarization and the decimation of any middle ground for compromise are key weapons in Trump’s own war against the institutions that are meant to keep him in check. Those who brand him and his supporters as fascists are merely deepening the divide, and delegitimizing the (often valid) grievances of millions of Americans, most of whom have nothing to do with white nationalism or extremism.
但是让党派两极分化，以及让有益于妥协折中的立场消遁，是特朗普向制衡他的美国机构进行战争的重要武器。那些将他和支持者称为法西斯主义者的人仅仅是在加深这个分歧，并使千百万美国人的往往是正当的怨气非法化，这些人当中的大多数与白人民族主义或极端主义并无关联。
The most promising strategies for resisting and defeating Trump are nothing like those required to fight twentieth-century fascist movements. Once Mussolini and Hitler took power, there simply was no way to stop them by working within the system. By contrast, the most effective way to combat Trump is through the ballot box, as demonstrated by the 2018 midterm congressional elections, when Democrats trounced Republicans to retake the House of Representatives.
抵抗和击败特朗普的最有前途的策略与对抗二十世纪法西斯运动所需的策略完全不同。墨索里尼和希特勒上台后，人们根本无法通过在系统内工作来阻止他们。相比之下，对抗特朗普的最有效方法是通过投票箱进行投票，正如2018年中期国会选举所证明的那样，当时民主党人击败共和党人重新夺回众议院。
The best way forward, then, is with a two-pronged strategy. First, Democrats (and all other interested parties) need to find a better way to communicate with the millions who voted for Trump because they felt – and, in many cases, truly were – left behind economically and ignored politically. Any movement that turns its back on these Americans not only reduces its own chances of winning political power, but also deepens the polarization that has allowed Trump to act with near carte blanche. Yes, most Trump supporters will not readily switch to the Democratic nominee in 2020. But it is nonetheless critical that Democratic candidates recognize these constituents’ concerns and start building bridges to them.
因此，最好的方法是采取两管齐下的策略。首先，千百万人投票支持特朗普，是因为他们感到（在许多情况下他们实际上也的确是）在经济上落后和政治上被忽略了。民主党人（以及所有其他感兴趣的政党）需要找到一种更好的方式与这个人群进行沟通。任何一个运动，如将这批美国人置之不顾，将不仅削弱运动自身夺得政治权力的可能性，同时也加深让特朗普得以为所欲为的社会的分化。是的，大多数特朗普支持者不会在2020年立即转向支持民主党候选人。但是依然至关重要的是：民主党候选人必须认识到这些选民关切的问题，并开始与他们建立交流的桥梁。
Second, the Democrats must win decisively. Otherwise, Trump and his supporters will claim that the election was stolen from them. An overwhelming Democratic victory is needed to signal to the country that most Americans oppose Trump’s destructive agenda, disrespect for US political institutions, and polarizing rhetoric.
第二，民主党必须赢得决定性的多数选票。否则特朗普及其支持者将声称选举胜利是从他们手中盗走的。所以，需要一个压倒性的民主党选举胜利来向全国传达一个信号，即大多数美国人反对特朗普的破坏性的议事议程、他对美国政治体系的蔑视、以及他制造分裂的言辞。
It is not too late to address Americans’ grievances and rebuild the country’s institutions. But that won’t be possible in a politically polarized environment, and charges of fascism will merely make that environment less hospitable to Trump’s opponents.
应对好美国人民的不满和重建我们国家的机构，现在还为时不晚。但这项工作在目前政治两极分化的环境中是不可能的，用法西斯主义的指控只会使当前的环境对特朗普的反对者不那么有利。